Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 66.3%
Previsori
27
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto14 ott 26, 01:53 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
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PolymarketWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S / ERA5 dataset) reports in its annual global climate release that the global surface air temperature for calendar year 2027 was the highest on record (exceeding all prior calendar years).
- If the C3S dataset is unavailable, the market will resolve according to official annual global surface temperature data from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISTEMP) or the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
- If 2027 ranks second or lower, or ties for the highest temperature on record without exceeding previous years, the market resolves to NO.
- Global average surface temperatures are tracked by several primary climate monitoring bodies, including Copernicus (C3S/ECMWF), NASA (GISTEMP), NOAA (NCEI), Berkeley Earth, the UK Met Office, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
- Annual global temperatures are driven by long-term anthropogenic warming trends combined with interannual ocean-atmosphere variability, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
