Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 88.5%
Previsori
53
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto2 nov 22, 10:45 UTC1 gen 30, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
PolymarketWhich AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
KalshiNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketRegole
This resolves based on my own experience of how many cars I see driving around in whatever U.S. city I am living in (or have most recently lived in, on the off chance I'm not living in the U.S.).
- I will go outside to the street and wait for a few cars to pass.
- I will try to look in the window or look at the model of the car to try to figure out if the car is driving itself.
- Once I feel confident about whether more or less than 20% of cars I see are self-driving, I will resolve this either YES or NO.
- In response to a question "Self-driving" means an SAE level 3,4, or 5.
- The self-driving system has to be engaged though - a car that is capable of SAE level 3 but which is actively being driven by a human won't count.
Mercati aperti
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Volume totale
- 12,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 11,2 Mln €
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 24 Mln €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Volume totale
- 15,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,9 Mln €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 24,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,9 Mln €
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Volume totale
- 2,1 Mln €
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
- US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 89% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030??
- Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This resolves based on my own experience of how many cars I see driving around in whatever U.S. city I am living in (or have most recently lived in, on the off chance I'm not living in the U.S.).