Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeJacob Tsimerman 24.3%+6.8%In testa tra 52 esiti
Previsori
394
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
15 set 23, 16:5831 lug 26, 3:59
Trend
0.3%
0%
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Jacob Tsimerman24%
Trend del volume
$33.4k8 lug7g di dati14 lug
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Every person who wins resolves to 25% (assuming it's 4 people who split it equally, in general we split it).
- It's very silly to bet people over 25%.
- In principle the Fields Medal could be awarded to fewer than four people but that's unlikely.
- I will resolve this as soon as I find out and not do any last-minute trading before resolving it.
- Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Someone who declines a Fields Medal award will still count as a winner for resolution purposes (as occurred in 2006 with Grigori Perelman).