Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeGavin Newsom 86.8%In testa tra 18 esiti
Previsori
29
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto9 mar 25, 04:26 UTC2 giu 28, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Republican primaries?
Manifold MarketsWho will the DSA endorse at the start of the 2028 Democratic primaries?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiTexas Senate winner?
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRegole
For the purposes of this market, a "major candidate" is defined as any candidate who, at any point during the race, had a polling average of at least 10%.
- In previous years, according to realclearpolling.com, the candidates who would have met this criteria were:
- 2024: Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 2020: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Mike Bloomberg, the named outcome, the named outcome
- 2016: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders
- 2012: [no data, presumably because Obama was virtually uncontested]