Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Where will human germline gene editing resulting in a live birth first occur legally??

Manifold Markets quota China al 71.5% al 27 ottobre 2026.

Where will human germline gene editing resulting in a live birth first occur legally?

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Previsione della comunità attuale

China 71.5%

In testa tra 11 esiti

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multiple choice

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Variazione 7g

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Aggiornato 8 ore fa

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12 mag 25, 02:03 UTC2 gen 40, 02:55 UTC

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This resolves to the location where the gene editing occurs, which may be different from the location where the baby is born.

Not all answers are mutually exclusive.
For example, if it occurred in a semi-autonomous charter city within the borders of the US, then both answers would resolve YES.
Background reading from Gene Smith for those interested:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfrSZaf3JC8vJdbZL/how-to-make-superbabies