Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 07:09 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeBefore 2033 68.4%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
25
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto22 feb 26, 18:36 UTC1 gen 51, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Winds of Winter released before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next game of thrones book by GRR Martin - "winds of winter", be released?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Winds of Winter be released
Manifold MarketsWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiRegole
The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin.
- Each threshold resolves YES if the book is officially published and available for purchase in any format (print, digital, or audio) through at least one major retailer (e.g., Amazon, Barnes & Noble, or equivalent) before the listed date.
- If the novel is split into multiple volumes, the first volume's publication date counts.
- A title change does not affect resolution as long as it is marketed as the sixth ASOIAF novel.
- Each threshold resolves NO if George R. R. Martin dies before the book's official publication date, even if a completed manuscript exists.
- Posthumous publication does not count.