Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore 2036 66%-1.2ptIn testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
24
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+0.4 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto22 feb 26, 18:36 UTC1 gen 51, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Winds of Winter released before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next game of thrones book by GRR Martin - "winds of winter", be released?
Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegole
The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin.
- Each threshold resolves YES if the book is officially published and available for purchase in any format (print, digital, or audio) through at least one major retailer (e.g., Amazon, Barnes & Noble, or equivalent) before the listed date.
- If the novel is split into multiple volumes, the first volume's publication date counts.
- A title change does not affect resolution as long as it is marketed as the sixth ASOIAF novel.
- Each threshold resolves NO if George R. R. Martin dies before the book's official publication date, even if a completed manuscript exists.
- Posthumous publication does not count.
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 944,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 721,8K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume totale
- 620K €
- Volume 24h
- 536K €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume totale
- 514,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9K €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 428,7K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will the Winds of Winter be released??
- Manifold Markets quota Before 2036 al 66% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will the Winds of Winter be released??
- When will the Winds of Winter be released? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2051.
- Come viene liquidato When will the Winds of Winter be released??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin.