Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 01:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
After June 2028 48.1%In testa tra 3 esiti
Previsori
37
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto7 lug 26, 04:56 UTC1 lug 28, 07:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
Manifold MarketsPMF or Die (AI Forecasting Edition)
Manifold MarketsHow comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Currently, in July 2026, the top forecasting bots are slightly below or equal to top humans.
- Extrapolating their progress, they should leave humans in the dust between 1 and 2 years from now.
- Unless the best humans are already near the theoretical maximum of how good even a superintelligence can be at forecasting.
- In which case AI forecasting is about to plateau.
- This is a big deal because Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan (the "AI as Normal Technology" (AINT) folks) have set this as one of their lines in the sand.
- They claim that domains like chess and protein folding (and maybe math) are the exception and that in most domains, humans are already near the limit of how high performance can get.
