Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What year will the majority of new cars sold in Europe be "battery electric" (BEV)??

Manifold Markets quota 2030 or later al 95.6% al 29 ottobre 2026.

What year will the majority of new cars sold in Europe be "battery electric" (BEV)?

EuropaOne-Off4a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

2030 or later 95.6%

In testa tra 8 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Variazione 7g

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Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 3 ore fa

Obsoleto

30 ago 22, 20:43 UTC31 dic 30, 22:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

This resolves according to the number published by ACEA, like this one: https://www.acea.auto/figure/fuel-types-of-new-passenger-cars-in-eu/

In 2021 the number for BEV was 9.1%, up from 1% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2020.
The EU have decided to ban the sale of new fossil fueled cars from 2035 so presumably that will be the last possible year this can resolve to, but considering how fast BEVs have risen it may well be a majority much earlier.
UPDATE: The number for 2022 was 12.1%
The number for 2023 was 14.6%
The number for 2024 was 13.6%