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  3. What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months?
Manifold Markets

What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months?

Health & MedicineOne-Off2m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Manifold Markets
20-29% 9.4%
In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori

11

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato l’altro ieri

Obsoleto
15 mar 24, 21:292 set 26, 6:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

20-29%9%

Regole

The 12 month phase 3 data indicates 75% vaccine efficacy of R21 in annual malaria sites in children at 12 months after the first dose was delivered.

Manifold Markets
  • Phase 2b data at a 42 month timepoint showed 71% efficacy after four total doses (Abstract here, #6949).
  • Resolves upon publication of peer-reviewed data from the R21 team at Oxford (expected to be before September 1st, 2026).
  • Vaccine efficacy is defined as the primary endpoint for time to clinical malaria in seasonal sites, as defined in the paper linked above.
  • 1Day Sooner has an R21 Status Report available here that may be useful.
  • More malaria-related questions can be found on our Manifold account here.

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Regole

The 12 month phase 3 data indicates 75% vaccine efficacy of R21 in annual malaria sites in children at 12 months after the first dose was delivered.

Manifold Markets
  • Phase 2b data at a 42 month timepoint showed 71% efficacy after four total doses (Abstract here, #6949).
  • Resolves upon publication of peer-reviewed data from the R21 team at Oxford (expected to be before September 1st, 2026).
  • Vaccine efficacy is defined as the primary endpoint for time to clinical malaria in seasonal sites, as defined in the paper linked above.
  • 1Day Sooner has an R21 Status Report available here that may be useful.
  • More malaria-related questions can be found on our Manifold account here.