KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Before Oct 1, 2027 71%-15.0ptIn testa tra 5 esiti
Qualita del mercato
33 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
158,6 €
Liquidità
179,1 €
Bassa liquiditàSpread
8.0 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 minuti fa
19 ago 26, 22:001 ott 27, 3:59
Trend
0%
0%
0%
0%
Regole
If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Food and Drug Administration
- An approval is defined as:
- For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
- The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion:
- Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
- The following do NOT constitute approvals:
Mercati aperti
Health & Medicine
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- No-0.3pt96%
- Yes+0.3pt4%
- Volume totale
- 15,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 14,5K €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300098%
- Above 4000+2.0pt87%
- Above 6000+4.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
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- 807,4K €
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- December 31,+1.0pt69%
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POLYMARKETHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
- Fewer than 20+14.0pt39.3%
- 20 to 34+17.0pt37.4%
- 35 to 49-12.0pt14.9%
KALSHIWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- South Sudan56%
- Burundi35%
- Rwanda30%
+13 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 293K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,2K €
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)??
- Kalshi quota Before Oct 1, 2027 al 71% al 24 agosto 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)??
- Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 ottobre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.