Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 20:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 54.2%
Previsori
7
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto12 gen 26, 17:58 UTC30 giu 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Global iron + steel slag output exceeds 595M tonnes by end-2026?
Manifold MarketsWagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026
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PolymarketIf the US Unemployment Rate exceeds 2.2% in December 2026, will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2027?
ForecastExRegole
Resolution criteria
- The Wagerup gallium plant is expected to produce 100 metric tons of gallium annually.
- This market resolves YES if production in the trailing twelve months (T12M) as of Q2 2027 exceeds 10 tonnes.
- Resolution will be based on Alcoa's official quarterly or annual production reports, or verified third-party sources reporting Wagerup gallium output.
- The market resolves NO if T12M production as of Q2 2027 is 10 tonnes or below.
- Alcoa's Wagerup gallium plant is located at the Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia, with development supported by Japan Australia Gallium Associates (JAGA), a joint venture between the Japanese government and Sojitz, through a Joint Development Agreement signed with Alcoa in August 2025.
