Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 73.3%
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto26 giu 26, 18:07 UTC28 giu 31, 03:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketCombined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceX
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic have a higher market cap than SpaceX after both IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill a privately-held company ever become the most valuable in the world?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
PolymarketRegole
As part of its astronomically valued IPO, SpaceX justified its valuation by of its ownership of the more speculative xAI / Grok rather than its proven business of putting things into orbit; this market captures the failure of that bet, either via a pivot back to rocketry or the collapse of the company.
- This market resolves YES if SpaceX has an (announced or de facto) a pivot away from its own AI model, spins off its AI business, substantially collapses, or is acquired by a company that does not pursue xAI / Grok.
- This market resolves NO in five years if none of those happen -- principally if SpaceX or its successor entity has more of its revenue or capital in its own-model AI business than in rocketry, starlink, or social media, or other lines of business that aren't own-model AI.
- The hypothetical vast orbiting ring of datacenters will count as xAI if they are training SpaceX-owned models, and not if they are doing something else (training a different model, mining crypto, running Roblox servers, whatever).
- While this market has vague and subjective elements, particularly as market structures and categories may be very different in five years, it will probably be pretty clear before market close if it comes up YES; as such (1) the market may YES early but probably will not NO early, and (2) I will not trade on this market.
