Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?

Manifold Markets quota 5-7.5 al 89% al 25 luglio 2026.

Quando si risolve Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?

Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon dovrebbe risolversi il 24 luglio 2026.

Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon

ChainlinkOne-OffIA

Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Questo mercato si è risolto: 5-7.5 (88.6%)

Risolto: 24 lug 2026, 23:32

Risoluzione verificata dal provider

CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.

Previsione della comunità attuale

5-7.5 88.6%+11.4pt

In testa tra 10 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 26 giorni fa

Obsoleto

9 apr 26, 16:4924 lug 26, 23:32

Cronologia delle Probabilità

>501.1%

40-501.1%

30-401.1%

25-301.1%

20-251.1%

15-201.3%

10-151.9%

7.5-101.5%

5-7.588.6%

<51%

5-7.5

+11.4 pts

88.6%

10-15

-1.9 pts

1.9%

7.5-10

-1.5 pts

1.5%

15-20

-1.3 pts

1.3%

>50

-1.1 pts

1.1%

40-50

-1.1 pts

1.1%

30-40

-1.1 pts

1.1%

25-30

-1.1 pts

1.1%

20-25

-1.1 pts

1.1%

-1.0 pts

Regole

This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.

'Mythos' includes any Claude model that sits above 'Opus' in Anthropic's naming scheme, even if Anthropic ends up calling it something other than Mythos.
Notably, Opus 4.6 had far higher ratio (nearly 12:1) than earlier models (2024 models typically had 3-5:1) Will this trend continue or reverse? Is reliability improving over time?
Mythos 50% time horizon: https://manifold.markets/jim/claude-mythos-metr-50-time-horizon Will any model exceed a 3 hr 80% time horizon in 2026: https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-an-ai-model-reach-a-3
[image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
[link preview]Update 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on Claude Fable 5's 50%/80% horizon ratio if METR releases that evaluation.

Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon

ChainlinkOne-OffIA

Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Questo mercato si è risolto: 5-7.5 (88.6%)

Risolto: 24 lug 2026, 23:32

Risoluzione verificata dal provider

CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.

Previsione della comunità attuale

5-7.5 88.6%+11.4pt

In testa tra 10 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 26 giorni fa

Obsoleto

9 apr 26, 16:4924 lug 26, 23:32

Cronologia delle Probabilità

>501.1%

40-501.1%

30-401.1%

25-301.1%

20-251.1%

15-201.3%

10-151.9%

7.5-101.5%

5-7.588.6%

<51%

5-7.5

+11.4 pts

88.6%

10-15

-1.9 pts

1.9%

7.5-10

-1.5 pts

1.5%

15-20

-1.3 pts

1.3%

>50

-1.1 pts

1.1%

40-50

-1.1 pts

1.1%

30-40

-1.1 pts

1.1%

25-30

-1.1 pts

1.1%

20-25

-1.1 pts

1.1%

-1.0 pts

Regole

This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.

'Mythos' includes any Claude model that sits above 'Opus' in Anthropic's naming scheme, even if Anthropic ends up calling it something other than Mythos.
Notably, Opus 4.6 had far higher ratio (nearly 12:1) than earlier models (2024 models typically had 3-5:1) Will this trend continue or reverse? Is reliability improving over time?
Mythos 50% time horizon: https://manifold.markets/jim/claude-mythos-metr-50-time-horizon Will any model exceed a 3 hr 80% time horizon in 2026: https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-an-ai-model-reach-a-3
[image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
[link preview]Update 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on Claude Fable 5's 50%/80% horizon ratio if METR releases that evaluation.

Domande frequenti

Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?: Manifold Markets quota 5-7.5 al 89% al 25 luglio 2026.
Quando si risolve Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?: Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon dovrebbe risolversi il 24 luglio 2026.
Come viene liquidato Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?: Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.

Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon

Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon

Domande frequenti

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