Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 88.1%
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto22 giu 25, 15:26 UTC22 giu 29, 22:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will an implantable device to treat tinnitus be available anywhere in the world before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump bomb Oman?
Manifold Marketswill a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegole
A "dirty bomb" is a dispersal mechanism like a conventional explosive attached to a radioactive material, intended to render an affected area undesirable, impassible, or uninhabitable.
- Nuclear explosions (those relying on nuclear fission or fusion for their energy) do not count.
- Intended nuclear devices that malfunction do not count, even if they have the same effect as a dirty bomb.
- This question resolves NO in four years if no dirty bomb detonates anywhere in the world.
- This question resolves YES based on the report of a newspaper AND a reputable scientific organization.
- I do not expect that to be a subjective criterion, but if it appears that subjective resolution is required I will sell any shares at current market value a full day before resolving this market.
Mercati aperti
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 23,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 312,6K €
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Volume totale
- 6,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 153,3K €
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 88% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30?
- Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30 dovrebbe risolversi il 22 giugno 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: A "dirty bomb" is a dispersal mechanism like a conventional explosive attached to a radioactive material, intended to render an affected area undesirable, impassible, or uninhabitable.