Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent??

Manifold Markets quota 2030 al 59% al 29 ottobre 2026.

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

2030 59%

In testa tra 5 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Variazione 7g

0.0 pts

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 17 ore fa

Obsoleto

20 mag 25, 02:41 UTC1 gen 31, 03:32 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

To resolve, at the end of the year I will take a sample of projects with 1000+ stars that allow AI contributions.

I will divide the number of human approved commits that had an AI author (where the AI generated the original changeset, reviews don't count) by the total number of commits.
The year will resolve to this percentage.
NOTE: The AI may be a number of asynchronous AI agents (Copilot, Google Jules, etc) - I'll count all clearly tool generated code if it's marked as such in git/GitHub.
User submitted code will not count.
If I can't accurately calculate the percentage, or can't find enough projects that meet this criteria, I'll resolve N/A. Feedback welcome on this resolution process, it may be adjusted to resolve ambiguity.