Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 68.7%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto29 nov 25, 14:57 UTC31 dic 39, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be a Batman vs Deadpool movie released by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill The Batman: Part II be delayed?
PolymarketRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiWill the re-release of Avenger Endgame Surpass the box office of Supergirl?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
PolymarketWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiRegole
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2030, a high‑budget, theatrically released Batman movie explicitly portraying Bruce Wayne/Batman as gay will be released before January 1st 2040 (or has already been released).
- What counts as “strong evidence”?
- Strong evidence (before 2030) includes any of the following:
- The movie is actually released and meets all the criteria below.
- Principal photography has begun on a movie clearly marketed as a major Batman film, with reputable trade outlets and/or official studio materials explicitly stating that this version of Bruce Wayne/Batman is gay/queer and the film is intended for a wide, blockbuster‑scale release.
- A widely covered studio announcement (e.g. press release, investor presentation, or major‑trade exclusive plus follow‑up confirmation) describes a big‑budget Batman movie with an openly gay/queer Bruce Wayne and gives a planned release date before 2040, with no credible subsequent reports that the queer aspect has been removed.
Mercati aperti
Box Office / StreamingKALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 50+3.0pt99%
- Above 45-3.0pt96%
- Above 55+4.0pt94%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 314,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 33,6K €
POLYMARKETWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 152%
- Crew Girl: Season 135%
- NFL Melbourne Game: 49ers vs. Rams30%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 586,3 €
KALSHIWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+11 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 76,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 455,5 €
KALSHIDisney+ App Downloads in September
- Above 11945%
- Above 123+2.0pt37%
- Above 12929%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 7,1K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETHow many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?
- 8M+95%
- 6M+58%
- 12M+55%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 30,1 €
KALSHIParamount+ App Downloads in September
- Above 7957%
- Above 82-1.0pt51%
- Above 8351%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,2K €
- Volume 24h
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- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?
- Will The Odyssey have a higher domestic PTA than Spider-Man on every remaining Tuesday in September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Gay Batman blockbuster by 2040??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 69% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Gay Batman blockbuster by 2040??
- Gay Batman blockbuster by 2040? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2039.
- Come viene liquidato Gay Batman blockbuster by 2040??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2030, a high‑budget, theatrically released Batman movie explicitly portraying Bruce Wayne/Batman as gay will be released before January 1st 2040 (or has already been released).