Previsione della comunità attuale
No 75%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto11 ott 25, 10:46 UTC14 ago 29, 22:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes
KalshiWill the UK change it's voting system to something that isn't the current First Past The Post (FPTP) by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Sweden
PolymarketRegole
[image](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/)
- Current polling in the UK has many parties above 10% and around the same size, which could make a general election with their current FPTP system unpredictable.
- Among potential winners are the Reform party.
- Meanwhile, the Labour Party, which currently has a large majority, are polling quite badly, and would likely lose government if trends continue.
- They have traditionally been opposed to electoral reform, but with the above facts there has been increasing calls for Keir Starmer to reform the electoral system.
- Resolves yes if, before the next general election, significant changes are made to the electoral system such as implementing AV or PR.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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- Volume 24h
- 691,8K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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- 603,1 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
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KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Major changes to UK electoral system before next general election??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 75% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Major changes to UK electoral system before next general election??
- Major changes to UK electoral system before next general election? dovrebbe risolversi il 14 agosto 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Major changes to UK electoral system before next general election??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: [image](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/)