Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 21:13 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
Other 58%In testa tra 5 esiti
Other 58%Previsori
40
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto8 gen 24, 12:53 UTC31 dic 34, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Tesla start selling a vehicle using a new "AI 5" computer by the end of Q3 2027?
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KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution Clarifications:
- Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year
- "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")
- Mass production indicators:
- first deliveries
- explicit communication of mass production start