Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Other 58%In testa tra 5 esiti
Other 58%Previsori
40
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto8 gen 24, 12:53 UTC31 dic 34, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will Tesla start delivering cars with their AI5 computer onboard?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla start selling a vehicle using a new "AI 5" computer by the end of Q3 2027?
Manifold MarketsCXMT starts mass production of HBM3 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution Clarifications:
- Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year
- "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")
- Mass production indicators:
- first deliveries
- explicit communication of mass production start