If protestors get shot by law enforcement during Trump's second term will his net approval rating go up?
Politica USAOne-OffGeopolitica2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 65.6%
Previsori
33
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto8 giu 25, 05:39 UTC20 gen 29, 11:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?
Manifold MarketsWill The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Manifold MarketsHow low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
PolymarketHow high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
I'll look at the net approval rating at https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin one week after at least one protestor got shot by law enforcement.
- It doesn't matter what agency the agent was from who shot the protestor(s).
- National guard or military counts as well, as long as it happened while they were on duty, responding to a protest.
- If no protestors get shot during the second term I'll resolve the market N/A. If net approval is exactly identical in Silver's report, this resolves NO, since it didn't go up.
- It's irrelevant for the market condition if the protestor survives.
- As long as they were hit by a proper, potentially deadly bullet, not rubber bullets or teargas or similar, it counts.
