If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezione2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 89.4%
Previsori
2
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto7 ott 26, 02:05 UTC3 gen 29, 17:00 UTC
Trend
Regole
Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. Senate votes to confirm a nominee to the Supreme Court of the United States between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive), for any seat including Chief Justice.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate.
- Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes.
