Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Materie primeOne-OffGeopoliticaMedio OrientePolitica commerciale2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 86.4%
Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo21 apr 26, 13:38 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by January 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by February 28th 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRegole
This description was generated by AI.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, there are no significant restrictions, detentions, or military-backed disruptions to commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz compared to pre-2023 levels, as reported by major international maritime authorities or reputable news outlets.
- The market resolves to NO if, at any point throughout 2026, incidents such as the seizure of vessels by state actors, declared maritime exclusion zones, or significant, sustained disruptions to commercial traffic originating from geopolitical tensions persist or reoccur.
- Relevant sources for determining the status of shipping include reports from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), and major international wire services (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).
- If sources are conflicting or ambiguous, the market will resolve based on the consensus reported by major international news outlets regarding whether "normal" transit conditions have returned.
