Democrats gain Senate seats in 2026 midterm elections?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneElezioni di metà mandato USA 20262m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 95.9%
Previsori
40
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto30 mar 25, 22:01 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)
PolymarketWill there be over 215 Republican seats after the midterm elections in the House of Representatives?
Manifold MarketsWill 3 or more Democrats flip seats in the 2026 midterm elections by running on anti-AI sentiment?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Currently the Democrats hold 47 seats in the Senate (including the two independents who caucus with them, Sanders and King).
- This resolves YES if they GAIN seats (including any independents that caucus with them, or that a media consensus views as likely to caucus with them, or predominantly aligned with the democrat party and their views).
- If there are special elections or some sort of party flips of members between now and the election, this market will still require the democrats to gain seats during the midterms.
- That is to say, let's say one republican flips to being a democrat and there are then 48 dem seats in the senate, then they will have to have 49 seats after the midterm elections.
- If there are some sort of election-rigging claims, or the senate is disbanded, or the Trump admin stops democratic senators from being seated, or some other hijinxes ensue, I will use my judgement to ensure a fair resolution.
- Thus, I will not bet in this market.
