Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 63.7%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto9 feb 24, 17:31 UTC2 gen 30, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030
Manifold MarketsCredible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028
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PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegole
This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.
- Any kind of dementia counts.
- Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.
- I do not bet on my markets.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
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KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030?
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 64% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030?
- Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030 dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.