Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 57.5%
Previsori
30
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto3 gen 24, 21:01 UTC2 gen 28, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028
Manifold MarketsCredible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030
Manifold MarketsCredible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030
Manifold MarketsWho will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election?
KalshiWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiDonald Trump # Truth Social posts September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRegole
This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.
- Any kind of dementia counts.
- Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.
- https://www.newsweek.com/stop-talking-about-bidens-mental-acuity-start-talking-about-trumps-signs-dementia-opinion-1853741
- I do not bet on my markets.
Mercati aperti
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 693K €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,1 Mln €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 54,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9K €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 12,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7K €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2028?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 58% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2028?
- Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2028 dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2028?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.