Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.
Politica2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72) 35.6%In testa tra 6 esiti
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72) 35.6%Previsori
27
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto9 ott 24, 21:21 UTC31 mar 29, 21:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?
KalshiIf Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump buying Greenland, how much will the US pay?
Manifold MarketsConditional on trump being reelected in 2024, will he become a dictator?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump assuming the presidency in 2025, will he be ousted by a military coup?
Manifold MarketsWill the next elected US president be a woman?
PolymarketRegole
WIll resolve based on the Electoral Deomcracy Index from our world in data which is based on the V-Dem report.
- 2023 the US got 0.85.
- Will resolve to NA if trump is not elected in 2024 (all mana returned).
- Otherwise, will resolve once the data for 2028 is released (probably march 2029).
- https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?tab=chart&time=1975..latest&showSelectionOnlyInTable=1&country=~USA&Dataset=Varieties+of+Democracy&Metric=Electoral+democracy&Sub-metric=Main+index
- For reference the following indexes were given in 2023.