Conditional on Trump assuming the presidency in 2025, will he be ousted by a military coup?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneGeopolitica2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 90.8%
Previsori
22
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto8 feb 24, 02:13 UTC22 gen 29, 04:59 UTC
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This can happen at any point of his presidency, so for now the market closes on January 21st of 2029 but this can change to a later date.
- It does not matter who assumes power next, so there’s no need for a junta to exist for the market to resolve YES.
- I’m hoping that, if this happens, then it will be clear that it was the US military which removed him from office, so we don’t have to debate whether he voluntarily stepped down, whether it was an actual coup or whether it was carried out by the military.
- If he is not the next person to assume the presidency, I will resolve this market as NA.
