Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore 2036 69.2%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto6 ago 26, 01:39 UTC1 gen 36, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if an autonomous robot electrician exists and can complete most residential service tasks.
- Also resolves YES if it's a team of robots and not a single robot.
- Evaluating the 50% threshold is going to be tricky - the ideal would be a company that has robot electricians and reports their success rate, but that seems unlikely.
- Some other options: - I ask service electricians to make a list their most common tasks, resolves YES if a robot can do those specific tasks (regardless of actual deployment) - No one is hiring human electricians any more - There's a sizable group of people depending on robot electricians for almost everything (even if we don't have a task success rate breakdown)
- Note that construction/remodeling work is not part of the question.
- Also note that I know almost nothing about electrical work, if this question is ill-posed in some way I may edit or resolve it N/A.
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 944,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 721,8K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume totale
- 620K €
- Volume 24h
- 536K €
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- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume totale
- 514,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9K €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 428,7K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians??
- Manifold Markets quota Before 2036 al 69% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians??
- By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2036.
- Come viene liquidato By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if an autonomous robot electrician exists and can complete most residential service tasks.