Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election?
PoliticaOne-OffElezioneLatin America26gManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeDatafolha 35.1%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto2 feb 26, 19:33 UTC4 ott 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Brazil 2026 Election: Will all third-way candidates stay below 10%?
Manifold MarketsWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
PolymarketBrazil 2026 Election: Who will participate in at least one televised Brazilian presidential debate?
Manifold MarketsBrazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Rio de Janeiro (RJ)?
Manifold Markets1st Round 3-Ball: Kaneko/Norris/Higgins
Kalshi1st Round 3-Ball: Wallace/Olesen/Molinari
KalshiRegole
Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.
- For each polling organization, consider their last publicly released national presidential voting-intention poll registered in TSE before election day (exclude exit polls / “boca de urna”).
- Let the top-2 candidates be the two candidates with the highest official 1st-round valid-vote share in the results published by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).
- A pollster’s answer resolves YES if both top-2 candidates’ poll estimates are within the poll’s stated margin of error (in percentage points) of the official result:
- For each of the two candidates: |poll_estimate − official_result| ≤ margin_of_error
- If either candidate is outside the margin → NO
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election??
- Manifold Markets quota Datafolha al 35% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election??
- Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? dovrebbe risolversi il 4 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.