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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Politica
  3. Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

One-OffPoliticaGeopoliticaLatin AmericaElezione6m
KalshiKalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
Delcy Rodríguez
Delcy Rodríguez 90%
In testa tra 8 esiti
Qualita del mercato

44 / 100

Bassa qualità
Volume 24h

0,9 €

Liquidità

207,9 €

Bassa liquidità
Bid / Ask

90.0% / 97.0%

Spread

7.8%

Spread moderato
Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 8 minuti fa

14 mag 26, 21:002 gen 27, 4:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Delcy Rodríguez90%

Regole

If Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For the purposes of this Contract, "Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela" means that, at the end of 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Delcy Rodríguez's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.
  • The Source Agency's determination of whether Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:
  • Control over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela Issuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction Control over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela Treatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela Treatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela
  • The following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:
  • Holding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Serving in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Nomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority Status as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority Symbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Delcy Rodríguez performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement Foreign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction Leadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Delcy Rodríguez Holding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela

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Regole

If Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For the purposes of this Contract, "Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela" means that, at the end of 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Delcy Rodríguez's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.
  • The Source Agency's determination of whether Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:
  • Control over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela Issuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction Control over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela Treatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela Treatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela
  • The following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:
  • Holding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Serving in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Nomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority Status as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority Symbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Delcy Rodríguez performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement Foreign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction Leadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Delcy Rodríguez Holding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela