Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?
PoliticaGeopoliticaOne-OffSportChessLatin AmericaElezioneMiddle East2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 55%
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto20 feb 26, 20:51 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Iranian Regime survives Trump Administration?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a military coup in the United States before 2029?
Manifold MarketsIran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
PolymarketWill the Iranian Regime fall before October?
MyriadRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, in the event that regime change occurs in Iran, credible international media (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, etc.) reports that the change was achieved primarily through a military coup—defined as the forcible seizure of power by military or paramilitary forces (particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or regular military) displacing the existing clerical leadership.
- The coup must involve the military taking direct control of state institutions and governance.
- Examples of such types of coups: Brazil 1964, Chile 1973, Argentina 1976.
- This market resolves NO if regime change occurs through other means: purely popular revolution (French Revolution, USSR, Romania), civil war (must be longer than 1 year, Syria is an example), foreign military occupation (Iraq, Afghanistan), or voluntary transition of power (Brazil 1985, Chile 1990).
- American or israeli airstrikes, blockade or covert operations doesn't count as foreign military occupation.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 55% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup??
- Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria