KalshiChiusoVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: Before Oct 1, 2026 (81%)
Risolto: 30 set 2026, 17:40
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Esito Vincente
Before Oct 1, 2026
A 7 giorni
—
A 24 ore
28%
SorpresaAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 30 set 2026, 17:35 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Before Nov 1, 202667%
Before Oct 1, 202681%
Before Jan 1, 2027Persa
Before Nov 1, 2026Persa
Before Oct 1, 2026Vinta
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the Vatican State stop its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and establish one with China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?
Manifold MarketsWill China establish a new military base in another country by 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Regole archiviate a livello di evento. I termini esatti di ciascun esito non sono più disponibili.
If the governments of the United States and China have formally announced an agreement to establish, or have implemented, a bilateral notification mechanism for AI incidents that could affect national security after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- A qualifying mechanism must be a government-to-government arrangement for notifying the other government about relevant AI incidents; general AI dialogue, shared principles, safety cooperation, or a general hotline without the incident-notification function does not satisfy this topic.
- The mechanism must be expressly described in an official government announcement, agreement text, or qualifying Source Agency report as covering AI incidents with national-security implications.