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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Elezione
  3. Next government of the United Kingdom?
Next government of the United Kingdom?

Next government of the United Kingdom?

ElezionePoliticaEuropeOne-OffUS PoliticsChessSport3a
KalshiKalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
Reform UK majority
Reform UK majority 15%
In testa tra 19 esiti
Qualita del mercato

24 / 100

Bassa qualità
Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidità

8,5 €

Bassa liquidità
Bid / Ask

8.6% / 15.0%

Spread

74.4%

Spread ampio
Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 7 minuti fa

21 mag 26, 14:001 gen 30, 15:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Reform UK majority15%

Regole

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
  • This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
  • Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
  • Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
  • A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).

Mercati Correlati

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Will early elections in the UK be announced before 2027?

3,6 €
Sì: 10%KalshiKALSHI
CA-41 primary: first place

CA-41 primary: first place

2,5 €
Linda Sanchez: 99%KalshiKALSHI
Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

14,6 €
Naftali Bennett: 30%KalshiKALSHI
What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

28,1 €
Russia / Ukraine: 77%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
France United Left Primary Winner

France United Left Primary Winner

2,5K €
Canceled: 49%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

638,1 €
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Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,963.68+2.52%SolanaSOL$65.35+1.78%EthereumETH$1,660.88+1.86%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+1.60%XRPXRP$1.12+0.59%BNBBNB$597.16+1.90%

Notizie Correlate

Former Epstein assistant Lesley Groff appears before House panel Crypto NewsTrump adviser Patrick Witt backs sweeping crypto tax billsCrypto NewsRussia election odds hold with United Russia leading at ~54.5%Blockchain.NewsU.S. judge blocks Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee after state challengeCrypto NewsTrump walks out of interview after clash over election fraud claims Crypto NewsCongress nears final vote on $70 billion immigration funding packageCrypto News

Regole

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
  • This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
  • Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
  • Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
  • A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).