KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiNessuna quotazione live
Dati al 9 set 2026, 14:45 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Probabilità implicita attuale
Reform UK minority + Conservative support 15%In testa tra 19 esiti
Qualità del mercato
42 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
1,8K €
Bassa liquiditàSpread
4.9 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 minuti fa
21 mag 26, 14:00 UTC1 gen 30, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
- This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
- Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
- Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
- A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Next government of the United Kingdom??
- Kalshi quota Reform UK minority + Conservative support al 15% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Next government of the United Kingdom??
- Next government of the United Kingdom? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Next government of the United Kingdom??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.