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Dati al 22 set 2026, 02:35 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Probabilità implicita attuale
Before 2027 22%
Qualità del mercato
47 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
10,8K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
2.0% / 7.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
11 mag 26, 16:00 UTC1 gen 27, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:White House
- This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
- Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
- Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
- Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.
- Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Trump recognize Taiwan??
- Kalshi quota Before 2027 al 22% al 22 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Trump recognize Taiwan??
- Will Trump recognize Taiwan? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Trump recognize Taiwan??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.