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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. US Politics
  3. Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

One-OffUS PoliticsChinaGeopolitica2a
KalshiKalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
Before Jan 20, 2029
Before Jan 20, 2029 18%
Qualita del mercato

28 / 100

Bassa qualità
Volume 24h

1 €

Liquidità

86,7 €

Bassa liquidità
Bid / Ask

13.0% / 18.0%

Spread

38.5%

Spread ampio
Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 1 minuto fa

18 dic 24, 15:0020 gen 29, 15:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Before Jan 20, 202918%

Regole

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
  • Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
  • Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
  • Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.

Mercati Correlati

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Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

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Sì: 1%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

5,7K €
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China coup attempt before 2027?

China coup attempt before 2027?

1,6K €
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Manifold Markets

Which country will build the first Military Space Station?

116,9 €
USA: 45.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Lai Ching-te departure announced?

Lai Ching-te departure announced?

0,7 €
Before July 1, 2026: 1%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)

79,9 €
10-15: 31.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,638.15+2.21%EthereumETH$1,649.96+1.51%SolanaSOL$65.11+1.46%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.50%XRPXRP$1.12+0.13%BNBBNB$595.17+1.48%

Notizie Correlate

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsFormer Epstein assistant Lesley Groff appears before House panel Crypto NewsTrump adviser Patrick Witt backs sweeping crypto tax billsCrypto NewsPentagon adds Alibaba, Baidu and BYD to China’s military-linked list Crypto NewsU.S. judge blocks Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee after state challengeCrypto NewsTrump walks out of interview after clash over election fraud claims Crypto News

Regole

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
  • Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
  • Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
  • Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.