KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Before January 1, 2028 27%In testa tra 3 esiti
Before January 1, 2028 27%Qualità del mercato
41 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Open interest
7,3K €
Open interest medioSpread
6.8 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
7 gen 26, 00:00 UTC1 gen 27, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Lai Ching-te visit the United States?
KalshiLai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketLai Ching-te impeached by which date?
PolymarketLai Ching-te visits US by which date?
PolymarketWill Lai Ching-te (of the DPP party in Taiwan) still be alive by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRegole
If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- An announcement that Lai Ching-te will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Lai Ching-te leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
Regole per ogni esito
- Before January 1, 2028
- If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before July 1, 2027
- If Lai Ching-te leaves office before July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before January 1, 2027
- If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.