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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Politica
  3. Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?
Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?

Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?

1.0% (24h)YearlyPoliticaUS PoliticsGeopolitica6m
KalshiKalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
Portland
Portland 24%+1.0%
In testa tra 6 esiti
Qualita del mercato

28 / 100

Bassa qualità
Volume 24h

0,2 €

Liquidità

45,5 €

Bassa liquidità
Bid / Ask

17.0% / 25.0%

Spread

47.1%

Spread ampio
Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 1 minuto fa

23 dic 25, 15:001 gen 27, 15:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
0%

Esito scelto

Portland24%

Regole

If the National Guard is deployed to Chicago after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Deployment means National Guard members arrive in Chicago on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routine training), with actual presence in Chicago, not merely assigned or in transit.
  • The following constitutes deployment and resolves **YES**:
  • - Governor activates Guard with deployment to Chicago - Guard units arrive in Chicago on emergency orders - Federal activation placing Guard in Chicago - Inter-state Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) deployment to Chicago - Pre-positioned Guard units activated for operations in Chicago - Any number of Guard members (even one) officially deployed
  • The following does NOT constitute deployment and resolves **NO**:
  • - Deployment announcements without actual arrival - Guard placed on standby/alert status only - Units staged outside Chicago without entering - Training exercises or routine drills - Guard members traveling through Chicago to another destination - Planning/assessment teams without follow-on deployment - Off-duty Guard members acting as civilians - Guard at permanent facilities (armories) not on deployment orders - Recruitment or community relations activities - Canceled deployments that never materialize

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Regole

If the National Guard is deployed to Chicago after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Deployment means National Guard members arrive in Chicago on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routine training), with actual presence in Chicago, not merely assigned or in transit.
  • The following constitutes deployment and resolves **YES**:
  • - Governor activates Guard with deployment to Chicago - Guard units arrive in Chicago on emergency orders - Federal activation placing Guard in Chicago - Inter-state Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) deployment to Chicago - Pre-positioned Guard units activated for operations in Chicago - Any number of Guard members (even one) officially deployed
  • The following does NOT constitute deployment and resolves **NO**:
  • - Deployment announcements without actual arrival - Guard placed on standby/alert status only - Units staged outside Chicago without entering - Training exercises or routine drills - Guard members traveling through Chicago to another destination - Planning/assessment teams without follow-on deployment - Off-duty Guard members acting as civilians - Guard at permanent facilities (armories) not on deployment orders - Recruitment or community relations activities - Canceled deployments that never materialize