KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Democrats, 3+ pts 34%In testa tra 3 esiti
Qualità del mercato
38 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
599,9 €
Bassa liquiditàSpread
5.0 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 minuti fa
5 mag 26, 20:203 nov 27, 15:00
Trend
Regole
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Montana's 1st District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:official election authority responsible for certifying results in
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 180,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 945,4K €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.3pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez11%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 601 Mln €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva56.6%
- Flávio Bolsonaro39.4%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt2%
+16 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIMassachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?
- Ed Markey+0.5pt99%
- Seth Moulton-0.9pt1%
- Ayanna Pressley0%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,8 Mln €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt33%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt27%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
+38 altri esiti
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- Flávio Bolsonaro-0.5pt86%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+0.9pt13%
- Augusto Cury-0.1pt1%
+15 altri esiti
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Montana's 1st District margin of victory?
- Kalshi quota Democrats, 3+ pts al 34% al 1 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Montana's 1st District margin of victory?
- Montana's 1st District margin of victory dovrebbe risolversi il 3 novembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Montana's 1st District margin of victory?
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Montana's 1st District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.