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Dati al 8 set 2026, 18:00 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Probabilità implicita attuale
Democrats, 17+ pts 0%In testa tra 9 esiti
Qualità del mercato
24 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Liquidità
—
Liquidità sconosciutaSpread
9.8 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
1 set 26, 14:00 UTC3 nov 27, 15:00 UTC
Trend
0%
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Regole
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 51st District by 17 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:official election authority responsible for certifying results in
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Mercati aperti
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
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+39 altri esiti
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
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- 183,4 Mln €
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- 471,3K €
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
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+38 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per California's 51st District margin of victory?
- Kalshi quota Democrats, 17+ pts al 0% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve California's 51st District margin of victory?
- California's 51st District margin of victory dovrebbe risolversi il 3 novembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato California's 51st District margin of victory?
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 51st District by 17 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.