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In attesa di risoluzione verificata
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Avviso sulla qualità dei datiNessuna quotazione live
Dati al 27 ott 2026, 18:42 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Probabilità implicita attuale
Before Jan 1, 2027 6%
Before Jan 1, 2027 6%Qualità del mercato
32 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Open interest
11K USD
Open interest medioBid / Ask
- / 100.0%
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 minuti fa
7 lug 26, 16:37 UTC1 set 26, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Before Jan 1, 20276%
Before Sep 1, 2026Persa
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketNigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage face a second Clacton byelection in 2026?
Manifold MarketsJeanine Pirro announces departure as D.C. U.S. Attorney?
KalshiJohn Thune announces departure as Senate Majority Leader?
KalshiRegole
La regola esatta di questo esito non è disponibile.
Si regola tramite:Nigel FarageThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersReform UKCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Regole per ogni esito
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Sep 1, 2026
- If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.