How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneElezioni di metà mandato USA 20262m
KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
At least 210 97%In testa tra 11 esiti
At least 210 97%Qualità del mercato
52 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
276,3 €
Open interest
23,2K €
Open interest altoSpread
6.0 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 minuti fa
22 set 26, 00:00 UTC3 gen 27, 13:59 UTC
Trend
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 238 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:The New York TimesThe Associated PressDecision Desk HQCNNFox NewsNBC NewsCBS NewsABC News
- A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party), any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Democratic designation who caucuses with Democrats is not counted, and one elected as a Democratic candidate who later leaves remains counted. Only the regular general election in each of the 435 congressional districts for the term beginning January 3, 2027 counts; a special election for a 119th Congress vacancy is disregarded whenever held. No district counts twice. Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from House composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is counted when that contest is called. Designated Media Source declarations. For United States based elections, this Contract may be resolved on an accelerated basis if (A) at least four (4) of the eight (8) Designated Media Sources have declared a winning candidate, party, or option, and (B) none of the Designated Media Sources have issued a contradictory declaration. “Designated Media Sources” are: The New York Times (NYT), The Associated Press (AP), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News. Should one of the Designated Media Sources cease to provide independent election calls, it may be replaced at the sole discretion of the Exchange. For the purposes of this clause, a source declares a winning candidate, party, or option when it makes either (i) a formal projection of victory by its centralized decision desk, or (ii) an unambiguous statement in a news article that the candidate/party/option has won. For the network sources (Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC), a declaration from a local affiliate may represent the parent network; however, a declaration from the national desk shall always supersede any affiliate’s call. In all instances, a parent network and all of its affiliates shall collectively constitute a single source for the purpose of this clause.
Regole per ogni esito
- At least 210
- If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 210 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 214
- If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 214 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 218
- If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 218 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 222
- If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 222 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 226
- If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 226 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 230
- If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 230 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 234
- If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 234 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 238
- If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 238 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 242
- If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 242 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 246
- If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 246 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 250
- If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 250 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.