Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?
6.0 pt (24h)One-OffPoliticaUS PoliticsElezione2a
KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativaProbabilità implicita attualeGavin Newsom 22.2%-3.0ptIn testa tra 10 esiti
Qualita del mercato
61 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
2,1K €
Liquidità
20K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
9.0% / 14.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 19 minuti fa
16 set 25, 21:007 nov 28, 4:59
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Josh Shapiro11%
Trend del volume
$2.4k2 lug17g di dati28 lug
Mercati Correlati
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If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
- The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
- Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
- The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
- If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.