Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

6.0 pt (24h)One-OffPolitica US Politics Elezione2a

KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativa

Probabilità implicita attuale

Gavin Newsom 22.2%-3.0pt

In testa tra 10 esiti

Qualita del mercato

62 / 100

Qualità media

Volume 24h

2,1K €

Liquidità

20K €

Liquidità media

Bid / Ask

9.5% / 14.0%

Spread

4.5 pt

Spread moderato

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 24 minuti fa

16 set 25, 21:007 nov 28, 4:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

Josh Shapiro11%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Regole

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

6.0 pt (24h)One-OffPolitica US Politics Elezione2a

KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativa

Probabilità implicita attuale

Gavin Newsom 22.2%-3.0pt

In testa tra 10 esiti

Qualita del mercato

62 / 100

Qualità media

Volume 24h

2,1K €

Liquidità

20K €

Liquidità media

Bid / Ask

9.5% / 14.0%

Spread

4.5 pt

Spread moderato

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 24 minuti fa

16 set 25, 21:007 nov 28, 4:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

Josh Shapiro11%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Regole

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.