KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 86%
Qualità del mercato
46 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
1,9K €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
7.7% / 14.0%
Spread
6.3 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
27 ago 25, 20:45 UTC8 set 28, 14:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?
KalshiWhat will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAny of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
Manifold MarketsAny of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRegole
If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:Reutersthe Associated PressBloombergThe New York TimesThe GuardianThe Wall Street JournalCNNAl Jazeera
- A party "contests" an election if they have at least one candidate on the official ballot under the party name, participate in a formal coalition on the ballot, or have officially endorsed candidates with clear party affiliation.
- The party does NOT contest if they only endorse other parties' candidates, announce a boycott, fail to meet ballot access requirements, or only challenge results after voting without having participated.
- For multi-round elections, appearing on any round's ballot counts.
- For federal systems, contesting in any state/province counts for the federal election.
- If the election is postponed but occurs within one year, the contract remains valid.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election??
- Kalshi quota No al 86% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election??
- Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election? dovrebbe risolversi il 8 settembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.