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  • Accueil
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Géopolitique
  3. Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

0.1% (24h)One-OffGéopolitique18j
PolymarketPolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Oui
Oui 99%
Qualite du marche

100 / 100

Haute qualité
Volume 24h

26 k €

Liquidité

169,9 k €

Liquidité élevée
Achat / Vente

98.5% / 98.6%

Spread

0.1%

Spread serré
Variation 7j

+0.9%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes

13 janv. 26, 21:1730 juin 26, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Yes99%

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
  • This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions.
  • Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Marchés Associés

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

3,8 M €
December 31: 68%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

3,3 M €
July 31: 56%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

812,4 k €
June 30: 31%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will the US attack Cuba in the next 30 days?

4,9 k €
Oui: 1%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

4,6 k €
Oui: 1.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

1,9 k €
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm): 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,663.61+1.88%EthereumETH$1,652.22+1.30%SolanaSOL$65.11+0.89%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.11%XRPXRP$1.12-0.32%BNBBNB$595.32+1.32%

Actualités Associées

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsPentagon adds Alibaba, Baidu and BYD to China’s military-linked list Crypto NewsNo-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.NewsMajor cryptocurrencies under pressure as oil jumps 3%CoindeskBitcoin recedes to $63,000 as Iran-Israel trade strikes and Korean stocks crashCoindeskYear-end odds on Israel–Indonesia ties shift in PolymarketBlockchain.News

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
  • This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions.
  • Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.