PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelleOui 7%
Qualite du marche
80 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
315,4 €
Liquidité
36,8 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
7.1% / 7.4%
Spread
4.2%
Spread modéréVariation 7j
+0.6%
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
29 mai 26, 13:1431 déc. 26, 0:00
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Yes7%
Comparer les plateformes· No
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketCette pageMeilleur global | Élevée | 93% | +86pt | 315,4 € | 36,8 k € | il y a 9 minutes | |
 Futuur87% de correspondance · auto | Faible | 92% | +85pt | 0 € | 650,5 € | il y a 9 minutes | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Futuur
Will China blockade Taiwan during 2026?
5mo
92%
8%
28 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total0 €
Volume 24h0 €
FUTUURRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
- A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
- The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$3592 juil.24j de données26 juil.
Marchés Associés
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
23,7 k €Oui: 4%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
5,5 k €Oui: 7%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
1,4 k €Oui: 28%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
1,1 k €China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Xi JingPing and Kim Jong-un meet in person in year 2026?
189,9 €Oui: 90.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
66,8 €Other: 0.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threatBlockchain.NewsPolymarket sees 55.5% odds for Iran blockade end by Aug. 31 after Trump jabBlockchain.NewsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
- A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
- The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.