PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
October 31 75.5%-14.0ptAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
68 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
4,2 k €
Liquidité
3,1 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
23.0% / 25.0%
Écart
2.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
4 sept. 26, 14:29 UTC31 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $72,000 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 467,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 461,8 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+21.0pt60.6%
- 140-159+13.1pt23.2%
- 180-199-24.0pt14.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above98%
- $73,000 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+4.0pt71.5%
- Before March 2027+3.0pt19%
- Before 2027+2.0pt4.3%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- October 31+5.7pt99%
- December 31+3.0pt99%
- September 15-8.9pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-1.0pt88%
- OpenAI+0.6pt9%
- Google+0.8pt3%
+18 résultats de plus
- Where will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 10, 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- BTC price range on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will Russia capture Bilytske by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote October 31 à 76% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by which date? doit être résolu le 31 octobre 2026.
- Comment Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).