Probabilité implicite actuelle
1.20–1.24ºC 84.5%-3.0ptEn tête parmi 6 options
Qualite du marche
64 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,5 k €
Liquidité
11 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
5.0% / 9.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Spread modéréVariation 7j
-4.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
9 juin 26, 17:141 août 26, 3:59
Tendances
0%
0%
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
1.20–1.24ºC87%
Tendance du volume
$1.7k5 juil.23j de données27 juil.
Marchés Associés
Global Average Temperature July 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
61,5 €July 2026 less than 1.095C: 0.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
4,6 k €SpaceX: 87%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
3,3 k €1st hottest: 91%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2,6 k €2: 55%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
345,6 €Oui: 33%
KALSHI
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
33,4 €Oui: 35%KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
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This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
- An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.