Probabilité implicite actuelle
1st hottest 47%+0.5%En tête parmi 4 options
Qualite du marche
52 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
2,1 k €
Liquidité
6,7 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
20.0% / 38.0%
Spread
90.0%
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
6 juil. 26, 18:4931 juil. 26, 0:00
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
1st hottest47%
Tendance du volume
$2.4k7 juil.3j de données9 juil.
Marchés Associés
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
189,8 €Oui: 24%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Global Average Temperature July 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
77,6 €July 2026 less than 1.095C: 8.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
35,4 €Oui: 23%KALSHI
KALSHIGlobal Average Temperature June 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
0,1 €June 2026 less than 1.095C: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
0 €1.20–1.24ºC: 59%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
SpaceX Starship 13th launch?
13,2 k €Before July 17th: 28%KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
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This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
- Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.