Probabilité implicite actuelle
<1.10ºC 38%En tête parmi 6 options
Qualite du marche
26 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
17,6 €
Liquidité
696,8 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
9.0% / 66.0%
Spread
57.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
28 juil. 26, 17:501 sept. 26, 3:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
<1.10ºC38%
Tendance du volume
$2028 juil.2j de données29 juil.
Marchés Associés
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
2,2 k €1.20–1.24ºC: 63%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Global Average Temperature July 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
191,6 €July 2026 less than 1.095C: 0.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
10,7 k €1st hottest: 64%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
10,8 k €SpaceX: 87%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
7,2 k €Oui: 39%
KALSHI
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
0,1 €Oui: 38%KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
Règles
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
- An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
- If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.