Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 97.4%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 36 minutes
18 août 26, 09:59 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will world population reach 8.5 billion by end of year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the world population be 7 billion or less at any point before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the world population in 2030 be higher than 8.6 billion people?
Manifold MarketsWill the world's population reach 10 billion people by the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketIs Cheryl Scott from ABC CHICAGO pregnant????!?!??? 🤰
Manifold MarketsRègles
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) routinely tracks and projects global demographic shifts.
- As debates around global population growth, resource sustainability, and shifting fertility rates intensify across social platforms, this market tracks a major near-term milestone: the world population officially crossing 8.3 billion.
- ### Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2028, at 00:00 UTC, the United Nations Population Division (or its official real-time data instruments backed by UN DESA) reports or estimates that the global human population has reached or exceeded 8,300,000,000.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2028, provided no such official figure has been published by the UN prior to that date.
- ### Fine Print & Edge Cases
