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Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

One-OffDivertissement Society & Culture3a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 59.3%

Prévisionnistes

102

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 14 heures

Obsolète

13 oct. 23, 12:47 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

When will "The Winds of Winter" (A song of Ice and Fire) by George R.R. Martin be published?

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Règles

This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter".

The condition would be fulfilled if the title matches or has resemblance to "The Winds of Winter", such as "A Few Winds of Winter", "The Winds of Snow" or "The Tornados of Winter".
Simply having a sixth book isn't sufficient to resolve this market yes.
If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter".
For instance, if Martin decided to write another book in between and published it as th sixth book of "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, this question would remain unresolved.
It must be published in an unlimited edition or a limited edition with at least 100 000 books.

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Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death? ?: Manifold Markets cote No à 59% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death? sera-t-il résolu ?: Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
Comment Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter".

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