Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.5%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète29 juil. 25, 12:11 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Minimax-H3 become unavailable on HuggingFace in any state in the US before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Illinois' AI safety bill have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Manifold MarketsUK social media ban in effect by which date?
PolymarketWill "Chat control" legislation be implemented in the EU by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the UK's social media ban take effect?
KalshiJosé Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
PolymarketRègles
The United Kingdom recently enacted the Categorisation Regulations for the Online Safety Act, which requires certain online sites to require age verification for users, censorship of harmful topics, and identity verification for contributors, among other rules.
- Wikipedia would likely fall under these requirements, but has said that they will not enforce these rules.
- https://wikimediafoundation.org/news/2025/07/17/wikimedia-foundation-challenges-uk-online-safety-act-regulations/
- This market will resolve to YES if, before January 1, 2027, Wikipedia becomes inaccessible to users in the United Kingdom due to enforcement actions under the UK's Online Safety Act (OSA).
- Verification will be based on official announcements from the Wikimedia Foundation, UK government statements, or credible news reports confirming such inaccessibility.
- If no such inaccessibility occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to NO.
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 182,3 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,4 M €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 résultats de plus
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Wikipedia be unavailable in the UK before 2027 due to the OSA? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Wikipedia be unavailable in the UK before 2027 due to the OSA? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Wikipedia be unavailable in the UK before 2027 due to the OSA? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Wikipedia be unavailable in the UK before 2027 due to the OSA? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The United Kingdom recently enacted the Categorisation Regulations for the Online Safety Act, which requires certain online sites to require age verification for users, censorship of harmful topics, and identity verification for contributors, among other rules.